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Marketing Attribution Models Explained...as a Super Bowl Drinking Game

Executive Summary:

Explore the world of marketing attribution through a playful analogy of a Super Bowl Sunday drinking game. Marketing attribution involves assigning sales ROI to specific campaigns, and this post discusses four common attribution models: Last Touch, First Touch, Linear, and U-Shaped. Continue reading to learn about what each means.




It’s almost Super Bowl Sunday, and in honor we’ve got a new post for you. What if common marketing attribution models…were a drinking game? Stick with us. This one will be fun.

First, what is marketing attribution?

Marketing attribution is the practice of assigning sales ROI to a particular marketing campaign. For example, if your boss asks, “What was the ROI on our January 2023 webinar?” typically, you’d go into your CRM, locate the campaign, see how much you spent, and how much revenue has been attributed so you can provide the ROI number.

The thing about marketing attribution models is they are not all created equal; that’s what we’re here to talk about. In this post, we’ll review 4 common attribution models: 2 single-touch and 2 multi-touch models. Ready, set, hike!


Last Touch Attribution

This is the attribution model we see most out in the wild. Here’s how it works

  • You have a cosmopolitan at home before the Super Bowl; you’re feeling fancy.

  • You have one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer at the tailgate party.

  • You have a Bud Light and Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA before halftime because your team is losing and you are stressed (yes, we’re now 6 drinks in; I hope you are hydrating).

  • You have one Corona in the second half because you are too anxious to drink anymore.

  • Your team wins!!! You have a victory shot of tequila and head home (via Uber of course).

The next morning, you wake up hungover (surprise, surprise). What drink gets the credit? In last touch attribution, it was your victory tequila shot. That one single shot gets all the credit for your splitting headache.

There are obvious flaws with this attribution model. If you only had the shot, would you be hungover? Probably not, at least not to the extent that you were after 8 drinks.

Last touch attribution doesn’t take into account that you had many touches along the way that contributed to the hangover. In marketing, this is the same. Often, with last touch attribution, your sales promos look like ROI touchdowns, while lead generation campaigns such as webinars, eBooks, and paid social can come out looking like real ROI losers. If you are using a last-touch model, don’t discount all the touches that happened along the way to bring home the win.


First Touch Attribution

Let’s use the same example as before

  • You have a cosmopolitan at home before the Super Bowl; you’re feeling fancy.

  • You have one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer at the tailgate party.

  • You have a Bud Light and Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA before halftime because your team is losing and you are stressed (yes, we’re now 6 drinks in; I hope you are hydrating).

  • You have one Corona in the second half because you are too anxious to drink anymore.

  • Your team wins!!! You have a victory shot of tequila and head home (via Uber of course).

What’s getting the credit this time for your hangover? The cosmopolitan! Wait, what?! Drink 1 out of 8 is getting all the credit?

Honestly…this one feels even a little worse than last-touch attribution. The little cosmopolitan, the “newsletter opt-in” of beverages. The entry point into your database, that super top-of-funnel, low-pressure opt-in form on your website, is probably looking like the best marketing tactic known to humankind.

Exactly the opposite of last-touch attribution, this model only takes into account the first thing the prospect interacted with. If you use this model, you’ll see a lot of super top-of-funnel tactics getting disproportionate credit. Don’t use the data from this to inform if you’re going to cancel your middle and bottom-of-funnel tactics, or you’ll be sad. Losing the Super Bowl is sad.

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Linear Attribution

Back to our drink play-by-play

  • You have a cosmopolitan at home before the Super Bowl; you’re feeling fancy.

  • You have one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer at the tailgate party.

  • You have a Bud Light and Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA before halftime because your team is losing and you are stressed (yes, we’re now 6 drinks in; I hope you are hydrating).

  • You have one Corona in the second half because you are too anxious to drink anymore.

  • Your team wins!!! You have a victory shot of tequila and head home (via Uber of course).

Okay, so we had 8 drinks; here’s how the attribution credit breaks down

  • 12.5% Cosmopolitan

  • 12.5% Bourbon

  • 12.5% Scotch

  • 12.5% The Generic Beer

  • 12.5% Bud Light

  • 12.5% Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA

  • 12.5% Corona

  • 12.5% Tequila Shot

In the linear model, every drink gets equal credit for the hangover. Of course, this is still imperfect. It doesn’t take into account the timing of each drink or the alcohol content of each drink, but this is better for sure. When you hear about “multi-touch” attribution models—this is what people are talking about.


U-Shaped Attribution

You get the idea by now…we go back on our Super Bowl binge…

  • You have a cosmopolitan at home before the Super Bowl; you’re feeling fancy.

  • You have one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer at the tailgate party.

  • You have a Bud Light and Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA before halftime because your team is losing and you are stressed (yes, we’re now 6 drinks in; I hope you are hydrating).

  • You have one Corona in the second half because you are too anxious to drink anymore.

  • Your team wins!!! You have a victory shot of tequila and head home (via Uber of course).

Here’s how our 8 drinks stack up in the U-shaped attribution model

  • 40% Cosmopolitan

  • 3.3% Bourbon

  • 3.3% Scotch

  • 3.3% The Generic Beer

  • 3.3% Bud Light

  • 3.3% Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA

  • 3.3% Corona

  • 40% Tequila Shot

In this multi-touch attribution model, we’re giving the first and the last drink most of the credit, but we are acknowledging that the rest of the credit should be spread across the other touches. So, drink 1 is important because, without it, we would have never started down our drunken path. The final drink is important because it presumably sets us over the edge to convert on a purchase in our marketing ROI example. In this model, the first and last touches get 40% of the credit each, and the rest is spread across the other touches, making the attribution model look like a “U”.



Determining the Best Model for You

Your CRM capabilities often dictate which models are accessible. Make sure you talk with a cross-functional team of sales and marketing leadership before deciding on your attribution model.

We hope you had fun learning about marketing attribution; good luck to both teams in the big game!



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